A MULTIVARIATE SPATIAL ANALYSIS FOR ANTICIPATING NEW FIRM COUNTS
- Thursday, February 25, 2016 from 3:00pm to 4:00pm
- Wilson Hall - view map
On Thursday, February 25th 2016, Yiyi Wang from Civil Engineering Department will present an Applied Mathematics Seminar in Wilson 1-144 with the title
A MULTIVARIATE SPATIAL ANALYSIS FOR ANTICIPATING NEW FIRM COUNTS.
This paper analyzes county-level firm births across the U.S. using a spatial count model that permits spatial dependence, cross-correlation among different industry types, and over-dispersion commonly found in empirical count data. Results confirm the presence of spatial autocorrelation (which can arise from agglomeration effects and missing variables), industry-specific over-dispersion, and positive, significant cross-correlations. After controlling for existing firm counts in 2008 (as an exposure term), parameter estimates and inference suggest that a younger (and possibly more vital) work force and/or clientele (as quantified using each county’s median-age values) are associated with more firm births (in 2009). Higher population densities are associated with more new basic-sector firms, while reducing retail-firm starts. The modeling framework demonstrated here can be adopted for a variety of settings, harnessing very local, detailed data to evaluate the effectiveness of investments and policies, in terms of generating business establishments and promoting economic gains.